Two recent North Carolina polls (both via Political Wire) show two very different results among Tar Heel Democrats. The first, from Rasmussen, finds Obama leading Hillary 51% to 37%. The second, from SurveyUSA, shows a closer race which Obama leads 49% to 44%.
So which poll is accurate? My own sense is that SurveyUSA is the more reliable of the two, and it supports my suspicion that the North Carolina primary will be closer than early polls suggested. Perhaps Easley’s endorsement has given Hillary a boost, but generally holds that races tighten as voters become more engaged.
Barring some major event (like maybe a John Edwards endorsement) I suspect Obama will win North Carolina, but not by double digits.