Archive for the ‘'08 Elections’ Category

2008 Democratic Primary = 2000 Election?

Monday, April 21st, 2008

Michael Barone, one of the most astute students of politics in the media, is projecting an awkward situation at the conclusion of the final Democratic primaries:

Barack Obama will be leading in pledged delegates, those elected in primaries and caucuses. Clinton will be leading in popular votes. Obama’s delegate lead will be entirely due to his victories in caucus states. Clinton’s popular vote lead will be entirely due to her projected victory in the Puerto Rico primary. Who then is entitled to the nomination? You could easily think up plausible arguments for either side. This would be a nightmare for the superdelegates who will have to make the decision.

I don’t know if this will happen or not–Barone’s numbers for Hillary look a little too optimistic (winning 60% of the vote in Pennsylvania?) to me. But then again, few would have imagined that the Democratic primary would still be in full force now, at the end of April.

This scenario is probably Hillary’s only chance at the Democratic nomination, and even if it comes to this it’s far from clear that she will get the nomination. So far she hasn’t shown any great talent at wooing superdelegates, but a string of primary victories could change that.

So if it comes down to Hillary winning the popular vote and Obama winning the delegate count, what will the superdelegates do? Will they follow the will of the people and give the nod to Hillary? Or will they treat it like a giant caucus, which Obama has done so famously well in? A few months ago, I would have predicted the superdelegates to go with the most electable candidate, then unquestionably Barack Obama. Given whats happened since then, I don’t know if he can still play that card.

Cross posted at Tennesseefree

Who’s the Boss?

Tuesday, April 15th, 2008

I was critical of Bill Hobbs’ decision to make an issue of Barack Obama’s middle name, but this brouhaha is silly. Anyone fair minded person would understand that Hobbs was referring to the people being Obama’s boss, which is (at least in theory) true of all elected officials.

McGreed

Tuesday, April 15th, 2008

I like McCain and I think he’s much better than his critics give him credit for, but this isn’t very reassuring:

Sen. John McCain this morning said “greedy” Wall Street investors are partly to blame for what he said is probably an economic recession the nation is now suffering.

“There has to be a modification of the greedy behavior of some of these people,” he said, using the word “greedy” repeatedly in remarks to the Associated Press annual meeting at the Washington Convention Center today.

I realize that McCain is only mirroring public sentiment on this issue, but I wish he’d show a little more leadership.

What is an Elite?

Monday, April 14th, 2008

I’ve been hearing lots of talk about elitism following Barack Obama’s comments about rural Pennsylvanians. It’s always amusing to hear politicians and pundits, who themselves fit the textbook definition of elites, rail against elitism. As James Joyner points out, much of our entire political system is based on elitism.

Obama’s comment was politically stupid and will probably hurt him in Pennsylvania, but all this faux-outrage from elites posing as average joes is pretty amusing.

UPDATE: Alex Knapp wonders what makes someone an elitist. Apparently it has something to do with drinking lattes, wine, and frequenting Starbucks.

Sensibility Killed the Penn

Tuesday, April 8th, 2008

George F. Will on Mark Penn’s downfall:

Mark Penn’s sin was to be caught doing something sensible, surreptitiously. That is the only way Democrats can do sensible things regarding trade when their party is pandering to organized labor. Penn’s downfall makes him a member of a species that many Democrats insist is large and about which Democrats theatrically grieve: Penn is a casualty of free trade.

The Democrats are veering more and more toward protectionism. Bill Clinton was an aberration, but Hillary clearly isn’t. Hopefully the Republicans will stand strong on this issue.

More Evidence Politics is Irrational

Monday, April 7th, 2008

Steve Gill on the possibility of John McCain picking Condoleezza Rice as his runningmate:

I hope so. That is the only thing McCain could do to get me excited about his campaign.

Now McCain could obviously do far worse than Rice, and I think she might well be a great pick. Based on what I know, I would be happy to support her.

The problem is that very little is known about her domestic political views. She is “mildly pro-choice” on abortion (not a deal killer for me), something I would think might bother Gill. But beyond that, we don’t know what her policy positions are. Yet Gill, who strongly opposed McCain because he wasn’t conservative enough, is willing to jump on the Rice bandwagon despite having no idea about her domestic politics? I guess he’s not quite as principled as he’d have us believe.

Cross posted at Tennesseefree

Air America Host Suspended

Friday, April 4th, 2008

Air America host Randi Rhodes has been suspended by the network for a classy rant against Hillary Clinton and Geraldine Ferraro. The bigger story, though, is that Air America still exists. Who knew?

Quote of the Day

Friday, April 4th, 2008

There is no such thing as a pledged delegate.

- Hillary Clinton (via Brendan Loy)

An 1877 Scenario?

Thursday, April 3rd, 2008

David Oatney has an interesting breakdown of the upcoming presidential election, including who is expected to do well where and what happens if there is a tie. Like me, he thinks the race will be close.

It’s impossible to predict with any confidence this far out, but if all things remain equal (which they won’t), this race will be decided by a handful of states, just as it was in 2004.

Bredesen for Veep?

Wednesday, March 19th, 2008

Is Phil Bredesen angling for a spot on the Democratic ticket? Jay Johnson thinks so, citing his op-ed in the New York Times. Johnson opines:

Honestly, Gov. Phil is a pretty appealing candidate to add to a Democratic ticket. He comes across as much more moderate than I think either Hillary or Obama do. He’s a yankee by birth, but the governor of a southern state.

Bredesen has not received much attention as a possible runningmate, which strikes me as odd. The guy may be lacking in charisma, but he does have executive experience (unlike anyone who will be at the top of either ticket). He also comes across as an old school, moderate Southern Democrat (albeit one raised in Massachusetts). If he’s on the ticket, he could bring Tennessee into play. Some of us Republicans may not like him, but he is very popular here.

I’m not saying this because I want Bredesen on the ticket. Quite the opposite. But I think he could be a sleeper.

Cross posted at Tennesseefree