Archive for the ‘'08 Elections’ Category

Game Over

Wednesday, June 4th, 2008

The primaries are over. Obama is the nominee. The only question that remains is, when will Hillary accept reality? Her best hope now is the VP slot, although I don’t think that’s very likely, and will become even less so the longer she remains in denial.

FL, MI Get Half Votes

Sunday, June 1st, 2008

The Democratic National Committee has decided to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida–although giving each of them only half a vote. This will probably be the final nail in the coffin of the Hillary Clinton campaign:

With no Michigan or Florida delegates included, Obama led Clinton by 202 delegates.

The committee’s ruling gave Clinton 105 pledged delegates from Florida and 69 from Michigan, with a total of 87 votes.

Obama received 67 pledged delegates from Florida and 59 from Michigan, casting a total of 63 votes.

That tally leaves Obama ahead by the equivalent of 178 delegates.

This decision is probably the most reasonable compromise the DNC could come up with at this point. It won’t satisfy Hillary, but even if all the delegates had gotten full votes she would have still trailed Obama, so it’s past time she saw the writing on the wall.

Great Minds Read Alike?

Saturday, May 24th, 2008

Barack Obama and I are reading the same book.

Tough Times for the GOP

Sunday, May 11th, 2008

The Politico has a depressing article on the trouble the Republican party is in.

Clinton for VP?

Thursday, May 8th, 2008

George Stephanopoulos thinks Hillary Clinton is staying in the race to position herself for a VP spot on Obama’s ticket. Obama supporter (and unorthodox conservative) Andrew Sullivan also thinks Hillary might settle for the number two spot. Given that a significant number of Hillary supports claim they won’t vote for Obama there is a certain logic here.

If Hillary Clinton is, by some miracle, able to win the Democratic nomination, I suspect she will almost have to pick Obama as her runningmate to blunt the anger from African-Americans over what would almost certainly be seen (probably correctly, in my opinion) as a stolen nomination.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Obama does pick Hillary, but I would be very surprised. One of Obama’s great appeals is his status as a “unifier”. Now given Jeremiah Wright that status has diminished somewhat but not completely. Picking a figure as divisive as Hillary would almost certainly destroy this selling point.

Then off course there’s the fact that Obama and Hillary despise each other. That isn’t a deal killer; after all, we all know Bill Clinton and Al Gore were not great friends. Neither were JFK and LBJ or Eisenhower and Nixon. But the Obama-Hillary hatred is out in the open. No one is ever going to believe they’re best friends.

And finally, there’s the Bill Clinton problem. Need I say more?

So as you can see, I don’t put much stock in the idea of Obama picking Hillary as his runningmate. It’s possible, but not very likely. Of course, I have been wrong before.

Is Hillary Closing the Gap in NC?

Tuesday, April 29th, 2008

Two recent North Carolina polls (both via Political Wire) show two very different results among Tar Heel Democrats. The first, from Rasmussen, finds Obama leading Hillary 51% to 37%. The second, from SurveyUSA, shows a closer race which Obama leads 49% to 44%.

So which poll is accurate? My own sense is that SurveyUSA is the more reliable of the two, and it supports my suspicion that the North Carolina primary will be closer than early polls suggested. Perhaps Easley’s endorsement has given Hillary a boost, but generally holds that races tighten as voters become more engaged.

Barring some major event (like maybe a John Edwards endorsement) I suspect Obama will win North Carolina, but not by double digits.

Easley to Endorse Hillary

Monday, April 28th, 2008

North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley is finally going to weigh in on the Democratic primary:

North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley will endorse Hillary Clinton’s White House bid, two sources close to the campaign tell CNN.

The endorsement could give the New York senator a boost in the state with one week to go until its crucial May 6 primary. Recent polling suggests Barack Obama currently holds a double-digit lead over Clinton there, though no polls have been released since Clinton’s win in Pennsylvania last week.

I still expect Obama to win the Tar Heel State, but this endorsement probably will close the margin. It will be interesting to see if Obama’s margin of victory is small enough that the pundits spin it as a Clinton victory.


Key to Defeat

Monday, April 28th, 2008

Alan Keyes loses the Constitution Party nomination to Chuck Baldwin. No, I don’t have any idea who Chuck Baldwin is either.

Clinton’s Keystone Win

Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008

With 98% of the precincts reporting, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in Pennsylvania by a solid 55%-45% margin. Slightly more than I predicted, but I was close. In any event, this was a win and a margin Hillary needed, so she will fight on. It will be hard for her to win to nomination, but not impossible. This will give her a boost. That’s my analysis anyway. Watch for all the pundits to say the exact thing over and over on cable news while using lots more words.

Pennsylvania Prediction

Tuesday, April 22nd, 2008

We’ve been hearing about it for what seems like years, but the Pennsylvania primary is finally here! It should be interesting. If Hillary loses, her campaign is finished. If she wins by five points or less, she may go on but her resources will dry up and the pressure will mount for her to withdrawal. If she wins by more than five points then she can fight on.

The RCP average has Hillary with a 6.1% point lead. I actually think her margin of victory will be a little more. She performed slightly better than she polled in Ohio, so I suspect she may in Pennsylvania as well. The demographics here are even more favorable for her than in Ohio. So I’m going to predict Hillary wins, 54%-46%.