Pennsylvania Prediction

We’ve been hearing about it for what seems like years, but the Pennsylvania primary is finally here! It should be interesting. If Hillary loses, her campaign is finished. If she wins by five points or less, she may go on but her resources will dry up and the pressure will mount for her to withdrawal. If she wins by more than five points then she can fight on.

The RCP average has Hillary with a 6.1% point lead. I actually think her margin of victory will be a little more. She performed slightly better than she polled in Ohio, so I suspect she may in Pennsylvania as well. The demographics here are even more favorable for her than in Ohio. So I’m going to predict Hillary wins, 54%-46%.

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