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This isn’t good news for the GOP:

The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that nearly a quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals. Such dissatisfaction underscores the volatility of the 2008 GOP nomination fight.

On the other hand, this is probably also due to the election being so far away. Most Americans aren’t paying much attention yet. Democrats default to Hillary Clinton because of her high profile, but no Republican has such a profile.

At the same time, however, it is undeniable that the GOP base is very demoralized. If this problem isn’t corrected, then we might well be looking at more losses in ‘08. Hopefully though, Thompson’s entry into the race will help assuage this problem.

You simply cannot trust the polls at this point. From Zogby:

A new Zogby telephone poll shows Fred Thompson taking the lead in the Republican presidential nomination race, even though he’s yet to declare his candidacy. Thompson leads with 22%, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 21%, Mitt Romney at 11%, Sen. John McCain at 9% and Mike Hucabeee at 5%.

From Gallup:

In the Republican race, Rudy Giuliani continues to overshadow his opponents with 33%, followed by Fred Thompson at 21%, Sen. John McCain at 16%, and Mitt Romney at 8%.

Although these two polls show quite a divergence, I think it is fair to conclude they offer more evidence of what many observers now thing: While the Republican Big Four (Giuliani, McCain, Romney and Thompson) still exists, it is increasingly becoming the Big Two (Giuliani and Thompson).

UPDATE: This post is taking part in the Beltway Traffic Jam.

The recently relocated Music City Oracle looks at John McCain and his struggling presidential campaign:

Notwithstanding the above issues, Senator McCain has had a consistently conservative voting record for much of his political career. He stood by the war effort even though he knew it would cost him. He rightly understands that it is one thing to criticize the entry into and conduct of the war. It is quite something else to support a quick withdrawal. That policy will result in a Middle East disaster, and the Senator was willing to say so at great personal cost.

Conservatives have much to complain about with regard to Senator McCain. Still, he deserved better.