Senate Speculation

Frank Cagle examines the race to replace Sen. Bill Frist. Although he is unsure who will be the GOP nominee, he doesn’t think much of Harold Ford, Jr.’s chances:

I know all the candidates in this race. I worked in Hilleary’s gubernatorial campaign. I supported Corker in 1994. I supported Bryant in his race in 2002. They are all good men. Any one of the three will beat Congressman Harold Ford Jr. like a rented mule. In the current political climate, anyone who thinks a Ford from Memphis can win a statewide race in Tennessee is living in a dream world.

I grant you that Junior is a nice guy. I like him too, personally. I also think he’s charismatic. The political reality is that he has too much baggage to win. His uncle is under indictment. His aunt’s election to the state Senate is under investigation. It doesn’t matter how many national media organizations come down here and salivate over the next Barack Obama, it ain’t gonna happen.

I hope Cagle is right, but I wouldn’t get overconfidentidant.

UPDATE: Not so fast, says James Carville.

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