State by State Breakdown, Part III

As I continue my breakdown and predictions for each of the 50 states (with Bush up 125-113), I find myself examining the Great Lakes States…

Ohio: (20 electoral votes) This is it, the mother of all battleground states. This is the most important state in the election in my view. No Republican has ever made it to the White House without carrying Ohio, and that trend will probably hold true if Bush comes up short here.

The President won Ohio by only four percentage points in 2000. This time around look for it to be even closer. Many manufacturing jobs have gone overseas, and the economy here is not very strong. The polls have consistently shown this race to be a dead heat, with neither Bush nor Kerry gaining a double digit lead.

My call: This is a must-win state for both the President and the Senator. This is one of the few states I believe is a true tossup. Ohio is culturally conservative, and the power of the incumbency will give Bush a slight edge. Then again, the poor economy also helps Kerry. Still, Ohio is traditionally Republican, so in what could be the closest state of them all…….. Bush in a squeaker.

Indiana: (11) Unlike it’s neighbors to the East, West, and North, Indiana strongly supports Bush. Most polls I have seen show him up by double digits.

My call: Bush by double digits.

Illinois: (21) The exact opposite of Indiana, at least politically. Formerly a Republican state, Chicago has allowed this to become a solid Democratic state. While Republicans are not hard to find in the rural areas, they are not enough.

My call: Kerry by double digits.

Michigan: (17) This traditionally Democratic state with a strong union presence is considered a swing state this time around. Bush has been polling well here, though most polls show Kerry with a slim lead.

My call: Will be closer than 2000 (when Gore won by 5), but Kerry will still win by single digits.

Minnesota: (10) Another swing state that is traditionally Democratic. Minnesota has gone for the Dems in presidential elections more consecutive times than any other state in the Union, but the most recent poll shows the race in a dead heat.

My call: Minnesota has been trending Republican, but it’s not quite there yet. Kerry in a squeaker.

Wisconsin: (10) The blue state that could most easily become a red state. Gore won here by less than 1 point. Polls have shown Bush leading for quite sometime, and though some recent polls show Kerry with a very small lead (all within the margin of error), I think this is one of the few states that will change from 2000. Kerry’s “Lambert Field” gaffe also hurt him in a state every bit as pumped about football as Tennessee.

My call: Bush in a squeaker.

Current standings – Kerry cuts into Bush’s lead, which now stands at 5… Bush 166, Kerry 161.

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